Many people think that betting with a successful outcome is all about luck. However, there are algorithms and systems that help you win a bet with the bookmaker, regardless of the "lightness of hand" of the player.
In general, it is not worth relying on intuition in the game for a long time. A gut feeling may be useful from time to time. But it's a bad decision to base a serious long-distance gambling process on it, and it will lead to a waste of money.
How to make money from betting on sports in this case? Income from betting can be generated by devoting time to studying statistics, strategies, networking with experienced players, calculations.
In order to understand the principle of mathematics in betting, let's look at the concepts of margin and odds, as well as the most popular mathematical strategies for betting on sports.
What are bookmaker's margin and odds
Margin is called the commission of the bookmaker's office, which it lays in the odds of a particular bet.
The amount of margin is determined by the formula:
(1/K1 + 1/K2 + ... + 1/Kp - 1) X 100, where n is a number of choices in one market, and K1, K2, ..., Kn are odds for each choice.
For example, for the match CSKA vs Lokomotiv BC calculated the following ratios:
CSKA win - 3.70
Tie - 4.30
Lokomotiv's victory - 1.80
So the margin is equal:
(1/3.70 + 1/4.30 + 1/1.80 - 1) Х 100 = 5.84%
Odds is a numerical expression of probability of a match outcome where the bookmaker's margin is already taken into account. The odds is the main figure used to calculate bets on sports.
You can calculate the amount of probable winnings by using the formula:
Bet amount x Coefficient.
Suppose, for example, in a match between CSKA and Lokomotiv, you bet 1,000 rubles on the victory of the army. The odds for such a result is 1.90. If CSKA is successful, you will earn 1000 x 1.90 = 1900 rubles.
If luck is on the player's side, the bookmaker will remain in deficit. But it is only at the end of one particular event. However, thanks to the margin, the BKs as a whole remain in the plus.
Top 3 mathematical strategies for sports betting
Betting systems based on calculations are a set of rules for bankroll management. The strategies are based on the experience of many professional and amateur bettors.
Consider the 3 most common systems.
1. Martingale or "Catch-up" Strategy.
The Martingale system involves doubling the bet amount after each subsequent loss. When making a bet, it is necessary to choose the coefficient of 2.00.
The first run will cover the loss and give a comparable income with the size of the original bet. The starting bet must be made in the amount not greater than 1-2% of the bankroll.
Let's say you allocated 10 thousand rubles for betting. Then you make the first bet for 100 rubles, and the odds are always 2.00. 2.
2. "Ladder".
This is a system in which the amount of each subsequent bet, in case of success, is equal to the payment on the previous bet before the end of the cycle. You need to plan your profits initially. You need to start a new cycle after losing or after reaching the desired result.
3. Oscar Grind's strategy.
This approach assumes that the player keeps the bet size in case of failure, and then increases twice if he wins until the end of the cycle.
The size of the first bet is the amount of desired profit. It is necessary to start a new cycle after reaching the goal. It is necessary to bet with odds from 2.00.
Pros and Cons of Mathematical Strategies
The pros of using mathematics in sports betting include the following:
1. Helps to make profits in the long term stable;
2. Free choice of strategies - it is possible to determine the most suitable tactic, to follow it or to alternate several;
It combines well with the financial management models.
Disadvantages include:
1. No guarantee of 100% profit. However, sports betting is a highly risky sphere in itself.
2. No help in analyzing events and determining the correct prediction.
It follows that only a thoughtful, comprehensive approach to betting will bring real income. Mathematical methods alone are difficult to achieve consistently good results. Relying on intuition, as discussed above, is also a dubious idea.
Therefore, in addition to mathematics, it's important to study the principles of various tactics. There are quite a few models based on statistics and mathematics. You can test them individually or cross them with each other. Pay attention to the analysis of the sporting events themselves. This will allow you to delve into some of the patterns and learn to compare statistical data to the real state of affairs. The most important thing at a distance is to act carefully and not to take risks.
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